Vietnamese exporters are showing cautious optimism following an announcement by former US President Donald Trump on his Truth Social account on July 2, in which he declared that all Vietnamese goods entering the United States would be subject to a 20% tariff, while goods in transit would incur a 40% duty. While the declaration caused immediate concern, many businesses say the outlook is more manageable than the worst-case scenarios that had been circulating in recent weeks.
A sigh of relief, but not yet certainty
Phạm Xuân Hồng, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Association of Garment, Textile, Embroidery and Knitting, noted that a 20% tariff would be far less damaging than the initially feared 46%. “If the final rate is indeed 20%, that’s much better than what we were bracing for,” he said. However, exporters are waiting for an official, mutually agreed announcement from both the US and Vietnamese governments, as well as clarity on whether similar tariffs will apply to competing nations in the textile and garment sector.
Because tariff rates may vary by product category, further negotiations between the two sides will likely be necessary. For now, Vietnamese manufacturers continue to hope for a more favorable 15% tariff, which they consider ideal under the circumstances.
The sentiment is echoed in the timber industry, another major export sector. The United States is the largest destination for Vietnamese wood products, accounting for more than 50% of the sector’s export turnover. A senior executive at a leading wood exporter said that while a 20% tariff is not ideal, it would still be tolerable, especially since the burden would be shared across the supply chain.
“In practice, if the cost is split between the importer, the retailer, and the manufacturer, Vietnamese firms would only shoulder about 7%,” he explained. “With some cost-cutting and efficiency improvements, we can absorb it.” The recent weakening of the Vietnamese đồng against the US dollar has also provided a modest boost to exporters, helping offset some of the tariff impact.
The fruit and vegetable sector is also monitoring developments closely. The US is Vietnam’s second-largest export market for fresh produce, after China. According to Đặng Phúc Nguyên, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, market access is highly sensitive to tariff levels. “If tariffs go above 25%, it would be very difficult for Vietnamese fruits and vegetables to compete in the US market,” he said. “But if it stays at 20%, we can manage—and even grow our market share.”
Nguyên pointed out that Vietnam currently holds just 1% of the US market for imported fruits and vegetables, leaving significant room for growth. However, he stressed that improving cold-chain logistics and deep-processing capabilities will be essential if Vietnam wants to scale up its exports in the face of tougher US trade policy.
Waiting on clarity and concrete policy
For now, the business community is treating Trump’s statement as preliminary and unofficial. Hồ Quốc Lực, Chairman of the Board at Sao Ta Foods, a major shrimp exporter, emphasized that Trump’s remarks only referred to a general tariff rate, with no detail on sector-specific levies. “We’re hoping that shrimp won’t be hit with more than 15%, but until there’s a formal policy, it’s impossible to plan,” he said.
Vietnam’s seafood sector has already begun adjusting its strategy in anticipation of trade headwinds. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), seafood exports reached $5.2 billion in the first six months of 2025, a nearly 19% increase year-on-year. Exports to the US contributed $891 million, up 16% thanks in part to accelerated shipments ahead of the expected July 9 tariff deadline. Even so, some companies have suspended US-bound shipments since June to avoid the risk of unexpected duties.
Another area of confusion is the proposed 40% tariff on so-called “transit goods.” This has raised questions about what constitutes a transit good and how such shipments will be assessed. Several exporters have urged authorities to clearly define the term before implementing any new tariffs. “Will this be based on raw material origin, or on customs classifications for temporarily imported and re-exported goods?” one logistics executive asked. “We need clarity before we can respond appropriately.”
For some sectors, transit shipping is not a practical option. Wood exports, for example, are often bulky and heavy, making additional shipping stops costly and inefficient. “Unloading and reloading increases the risk of damage, especially mold and scratches—which are red flags for buyers in our industry,” said a timber exporter. “Unless we have excess inventory or specific strategic needs, transit isn’t a viable solution.”
Despite the uncertainties, most Vietnamese exporters remain measured in their response, neither panicked nor overly reassured. The consensus is that until a formal policy is issued by the US government—and ideally coordinated with Vietnamese authorities—businesses can do little more than prepare for a range of scenarios.
In the meantime, sectors such as textiles, wood, seafood, and agriculture are watching closely and adjusting their production and logistics where possible. The outcome of this latest round of US trade policy under Trump could significantly reshape Vietnam’s export strategies—not just toward the US, but globally
