According to him, there is considerable potential for Vietnam to emerge as a global hub for high-technology supplies and a prominent international business destination in the coming years.
JOURNALIST: - Sir, considering the challenges faced in 2023 in terms of production, business activities, administration, and policy planning, what is your outlook for 2024?
Prof.Dr. HOÀNG VĂN CƯỜNG: - We are optimistic that by 2024, several obstacles will gradually diminish, the economic landscape will witness improvement, and positive indicators will emerge. Foremost among the challenges, factors like high inflation, economic deceleration, and declining demand, which exerted significant influence in 2023, are expected to be effectively managed. This will contribute to a swifter economic recovery in 2024. Additionally, on the international front, the decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to refrain from further interest rate hikes, or possibly reduce them substantially in 2024, will alleviate pressures related to monetary policy, exchange rates, and capital.
We are also observing promising aspects within our domestic resources. As the global economy undergoes an uneven recovery, our economic growth is steadily increasing each quarter, displaying a consistent upward trend. With a stable macroeconomic environment, ensured major balances, more flexible monetary policy, improved fiscal resources, enhanced reserves, and low public debt, 2024 offers ample opportunities for a more secure approach to policy management and significant room for growth.
- Looking ahead, what do you see as the key goal for Vietnam's economy in 2024? And what can we expect from the financial and property markets?
- 2024 needs to be a year of bold action. We need to take decisive steps to attract more investment, restructure the economy, and remove any obstacles to growth. This is a challenging task, but it's also crucial for making 2024 a strong year for the economy. As the economy recovers and shows promise, we can expect several positive developments:
Firstly, increased investment: With economic confidence rising, we'll likely see more sources of new investment pouring in, potentially driving up demand for real estate.
Secondly, financial market revival: The currency and capital markets should also see renewed vibrancy. This will be further boosted by the implementation of new policies and laws like the Real Estate Business Law, the Housing Law, and the amended Real Estate Law.
Thirdly, stable real estate market: These new regulations and the overall improving economic climate should lead to a more stable real estate market. While we might see continued expansion, there's less risk of bubble formation or major disruptions.
Fourthly, boosted stock markets: Increased investment activity will naturally benefit the stock market, providing more opportunities for growth and development.
In short, while 2023 presented significant challenges, 2024 holds the potential for a strong economic recovery, fueled by increased investment, stable real estate, and a revitalized financial sector. It's a year for bold action and optimism, but also one where responsible policy and market stability remain crucial.
- Vietnam aims to become a high-income industrialized nation, and finding new growth engines is crucial. What are your thoughts on this direction?
- It's vital to recognize the growing importance of digital and green development as both a global trend and a cornerstone for Vietnam's future. This trend necessitates a transformation in our approach. This transition will have two major impacts:
Firstly, internal restructuring: We must revamp our internal structures, governance models, technology adoption, and overall economic organization. Secondly, embracing new investment trends: We need to welcome investment in emerging high-tech industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors. This requires creating a turning point to attract foreign investors in these crucial sectors.
Specifically, we need to shift from a production model reliant on capital, natural resources, and cheap labor to one driven by science, technology, and innovation. In the past, we attracted investors for basic manufacturing like clothing, shoes, and phone assembly. Now, we must attract investment based on cutting-edge technology and expertise, not just cheap resources. This restructuring requires venturing into areas driven by new technologies and approaches, allowing us to deeply integrate into the global value chain at the high-value stage, ultimately leading to technological mastery and control over the production chain.
It's important to note that Vietnam isn't passively waiting. The government has been proactive in seeking strategic investors and partners, actively understanding their needs and preparing accordingly. For instance, we've proactively developed human resource training plans and upgraded domestic businesses to empower them to collaborate with and compete alongside major foreign corporations.
In short, the green economy and digital economy are the new growth engines that will propel Vietnam from a middle-income nation to an industrialized high-income one, avoiding the middle-income trap. These models represent sustainable development and a growth model built on productivity, quality, technology, and innovation.
- Looking ahead, what kind of future do you envision for Vietnam?
- I see a thriving, high-income Vietnam that has transformed beyond its current role as a manufacturing hub. I picture a country at the forefront of innovation, serving as the world's high-tech supplier, a major producer of high-value goods, and a global intellectual hub. This vision goes beyond simply being a factory floor of the world.
Furthermore, I believe Vietnam's natural beauty and welcoming culture combined with technological advancements can unlock immense potential for sustainable, science-driven tourism. Imagine a Vietnam that's not just a tourist destination, but a desirable place to live and work. We have the resources and capabilities to make this dream a reality.
However, realizing this potential requires not only abundant resources but also ambition and unwavering determination. We must be bold in our aspirations and persistent in our efforts to transform Vietnam into the vibrant, high-income nation it can be.
- Thank you very much.
