This would mark a historic milestone for the country, showcasing its growing integration into global trade networks and its resilience in the face of economic challenges. With trade activities already surpassing USD 715 billion in the first 11 months, Vietnam is set to break records, reflecting its competitive edge across various sectors.
A Historic Year for Trade
Vietnam's agricultural, forestry, and fishery sectors have been at the forefront of its trade success. In November 2024 alone, these sectors achieved an export turnover of USD 5.3 billion, a 13.9% increase year-on-year. For the first 11 months of the year, the cumulative export turnover reached USD 56.74 billion, marking a significant 19% growth compared to the same period in 2023.
These achievements have already surpassed the government’s annual target of USD 54–55 billion, positioning the sector to achieve a record-breaking USD 60 billion by the year's end.
The United States remains the largest market for Vietnam’s agricultural, forestry, and fishery products, accounting for 21.7% of exports. It is closely followed by China at 21.6% and Japan at 6.6%. These three markets have been pivotal in driving growth, offering diverse opportunities for Vietnamese producers.
Vietnam's trade surplus in these sectors has also grown substantially, reaching USD 16.46 billion—a remarkable 52.8% increase from last year. Notable contributions came from products like wood and wood items (USD 12.11 billion surplus, +19.4%), fruits and vegetables (USD 4.56 billion, +33.9%), coffee (USD 4.53 billion, +30.5%), rice (USD 4.07 billion, +14.6%), shrimp (USD 3.19 billion, +20.5%), pangasius (USD 1.72 billion, +10.1%), and pepper (USD 1.07 billion, +43.5%). These figures underline Vietnam's ability to meet global demand while maintaining a competitive edge in agricultural production and export.
Vietnam’s textile and garment industry is another standout performer, with export turnover expected to reach USD 44 billion this year. This achievement comes despite rising production costs, which have surged by approximately 47% over the past five years. Remarkably, enterprises have managed to remain competitive without raising prices significantly, leveraging automation and technology to boost efficiency.
According to Mr. Vũ Đức Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, many companies have secured orders through the first quarter of 2025, with negotiations already underway for the second quarter. This continuity of demand ensures a solid foundation for growth, even as global economic conditions fluctuate.
The leather, footwear, and handbag industry remains a cornerstone of Vietnam’s export economy. Vietnam is currently the third-largest producer of leather and footwear globally, behind China and India, and the second-largest exporter after China. By year’s end, the sector is projected to generate USD 26–27 billion in export turnover, reaffirming its status as a global leader.
According to Mr. Diệp Thành Kiệt, Vice President of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear, and Handbag Association, the industry has maximised the benefits of free trade agreements (FTAs) to enhance its competitive edge. By focusing on production efficiency, quality, and market diversification, the sector has positioned itself as a reliable supplier in the global value chain.
Preparing for 2025: Opportunities and Challenges
As Vietnam celebrates these achievements, the country also prepares for potential challenges in 2025, particularly in its largest export market, the United States. The anticipated return of Donald Trump to the presidency has raised questions about changes in trade policies, including potential tariffs and incentives for US-based production.
Despite these concerns, experts like Mr. Diệp Thành Kiệt believe that industries such as footwear are well-positioned to withstand these challenges. Several factors contribute to this confidence:
- Labour Costs: The footwear industry remains highly labour-intensive, and the significant wage disparity between Vietnam and the US ensures Vietnam's cost competitiveness.
- Supply Chain Complexity: Vietnam’s footwear supply chains are intricate and well-established, with companies managing tens of thousands of material codes. Replicating this system in the US would be both time-consuming and costly.
- Cost Efficiency: Even with rising production costs, Vietnam’s overall manufacturing expenses remain lower than those in many developed markets, including the US.
These factors underscore Vietnam's strategic advantage, allowing its industries to adapt to shifting global dynamics while maintaining their competitiveness.
While the outlook for 2025 is positive, Vietnamese businesses remain cautious. Industries such as furniture, which are heavily reliant on the US market, are particularly watchful of potential economic shifts. According to Mr. Nguyễn Hoài Bảo, Vice President and General Secretary of the Handicraft and Wood Processing Association of Ho Chi Minh City (HAWA), inflation and potential slowdowns in the US construction sector could dampen demand for non-essential items like furniture.
To mitigate risks, businesses are advised to diversify their markets, optimise production processes, and maintain flexibility in their operations. This approach ensures resilience in the face of uncertainty, enabling enterprises to seize opportunities while navigating potential disruptions.
Vietnam's achievements in 2024 highlight several key lessons for sustained growth:
- Harnessing Trade Agreements: Vietnam’s active participation in FTAs has been instrumental in expanding market access and reducing trade barriers.
- Investing in Technology: Across industries, the adoption of advanced technologies and automation has improved efficiency, reduced costs, and enhanced competitiveness.
- Fostering Market Diversification: By targeting a wide range of export markets, Vietnam has reduced its reliance on any single country, ensuring greater stability.
Vietnam’s anticipated USD 800 billion trade turnover is a testament to its economic resilience and strategic foresight. The milestone reflects the nation’s ability to adapt, innovate, and thrive in a complex global environment.
As Vietnam looks to 2025, the focus will be on sustaining this momentum, addressing emerging challenges, and leveraging opportunities for growth. With a strong foundation built on competitive industries, strategic market positioning, and a commitment to excellence, Vietnam is poised to continue its ascent as a global trade powerhouse.
For now, the country celebrates a year of historic achievements, marking a proud chapter in its journey toward economic prosperity and global integration.
