As per the resolution, the National Assembly has endorsed a GDP growth target ranging from 6% to 6.5% for the year 2024, with an additional aim of achieving a GDP per capita between USD 4,700 and USD 4,730. While the set goals pose a considerable challenge, their attainability is feasible. However, the crucial aspect lies in the quality of these goals and their implications for the years to come.
Motivating Growth Goals in the Face of Global Challenges
In the midst of lingering global economic uncertainties and internal challenges, the set growth target of 6-6.5% for Vietnam in 2024 is not a simple feat. Nevertheless, it stands as a pivotal objective, laying the groundwork for the nation's GDP per capita to potentially surpass the USD 5,000 threshold by the close of 2025, marking the initiation of the 2026-2030 planning period.
While the growth target is undeniably ambitious, it remains achievable, driven by key factors such as the recovery of vital export markets, including the US, China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN nations. Forecasts predict a positive trajectory for domestic consumption, and the sustained increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private investment capital reflects growing investor confidence. The prevailing macroeconomic stability further fosters a conducive environment for investment and overall economic growth.
It is crucial to recognize that, in order to escape the middle-income trap and advance towards becoming an industrialized, high-income nation, Vietnam must sustain a high growth rate over many years, potentially spanning decades. Consequently, emphasis on the quality and sustainability of this growth becomes paramount.
The 6.5% growth target for 2024 is not merely a numerical goal; it is a stepping stone. The immediate focus must be on preparatory measures to propel Vietnam towards a growth model grounded in knowledge, technology, innovation, heightened labor productivity, and socio-economic and environmental sustainability. The objective is not just growth but the concurrent establishment of foundations for sustainable, continuous development during the 2026-2030 five-year plan period and beyond into the ensuing decades. While these foundations are already taking shape, reinforcing them with specific measures and actions in 2024 and beyond is imperative for realizing Vietnam's enduring prosperity.
Elevating Growth Quality: A Holistic Approach for 2024 and Beyond
In addition to the set growth target, 2024 is poised to usher in transformative changes, focusing on enhancing labor productivity and witnessing a robust upswing in domestic private investment, particularly in high-tech and key industries. Anticipated breakthrough reforms aim to elevate the business and investment environment, accompanied by substantial changes in mechanisms to unlock domestic resources and attract private investment. Emphasis will be placed on harnessing intelligence, knowledge, skills, and domestic resources for critical national projects, such as the North-South high-speed railway, urban railways in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, and the development of airports, seaports, and high-tech parks.
These initiatives are deemed equally crucial as the GDP growth goal itself. They serve as the foundation to ensure swift and sustainable growth over an extended period, enabling Vietnam to transcend the middle-income trap and join the league of innovative, creative, and high-income economies while fortifying economic autonomy and self-reliance.
While determination to achieve growth goals is paramount, it is imperative to avoid channeling resources indiscriminately into economically and socially ineffective projects, leaving behind unfinished infrastructure, unattended public works, or environmentally detrimental ventures. Such practices may yield desired growth statistics in the short term but pose a risk of decelerating growth in the medium and long term.
Recognizing that growth is fundamentally meant to improve the lives of the people and workers, the growth target must be complemented by indicators demonstrating tangible improvements in people's lives, job opportunities, average income, and disposable income. Access to basic social services, including healthcare, education, and housing, should witness significant enhancements across all regions of the country. An improved living environment and increasingly convenient access to public services are integral indicators of growth quality.
Given these considerations, the focus on development in 2024 should transcend the singular goal of achieving a 6-6.5% growth rate. With 2024 and 2025 marking the final two years before the economy enters a new planning period with more ambitious goals and directions, the emphasis should be on preparatory and transitional steps. These steps are essential for the continued restructuring of the economy, maintaining a high and sustainable growth rate in the long term, and fostering increased participation of businesses in domestic industries to enhance economic autonomy and self-reliance.
